The research challenges the idea that teacher attrition is spiraling out of control, finding that the percentage of school teachers quitting the profession each year is now lower than attrition in all other occupations.
The study, conducted by researchers from the e61 Institute, used population-wide administrative tax data to get the clearest picture to date of who is leaving teaching, why, and what happens next.
From 2009 to 2021, the percentage of school teachers quitting the profession each year fell from 5.9% to 5.1%, and it is now lower than attrition in all other occupations, including midwives and nurses, medical practitioners, and defence force members, firefighters and police.
Who’s staying, and who’s leaving
The drop in teacher attrition is largely due to early-career teachers, with rates nearly halving from 4% to 2.3%. However, attrition remains high in very remote areas, particularly the Northern Territory, and among special education teachers.
Higher academic aptitude teachers are also particularly likely to leave, the report found.
“Teachers who entered university with ATARs above 90 are 23% more likely to exit the profession, often moving to better-paid roles outside education,” e61 Research Manager Dr Silvia Grisela said. “Importantly, financial motives do not seem to be a major driver of most teachers' decision to leave the profession.”
Dr Grisela pointed out that most teachers who leave earn less over the long run than those who stay.
“After 10 years, ex-teachers earn around $21,000 or 36% less than their peers who remained in the profession,” she said, adding that not all attrition is harmful.
“One in three teachers who change jobs stay within the education sector—working as education aides, early childhood educators, or education advisers. Many others transition into caring professions, especially following the expansion of the NDIS.”
Teacher pipeline pressures remain
Dr Grisela said while the report’s findings suggest that teacher attrition is not spiraling, contrary to many media reports, pipeline pressures that undermine teacher supply persist.
“Our findings challenge the idea that teacher attrition is spiraling out of control. The bigger issue is that fewer students are entering teaching degrees in the first place,” Dr Griselda said.
“If we a sustainable workforce, we need to focus not just on retention but also on attracting more people into the profession.”
Senior Research Economist Jack Buckley said new student enrolments in teaching have “barely” grown in 15 years, lagging well behind other fields like nursing
“Combined with the general decline in completion rates across university courses, slower growth in enrolments has significantly reduced the pipeline of new teachers entering the profession relative to the number of graduates entering other professions such as nursing,” Buckley said.
In February this year, data, released by the Department of Education, found that overall, preliminary results from tertiary admission centres showed a 7% increase in applications and a 14% increase in offers compared to 2024.
Public schools driving uptick in teacher retention
Earlier this year, data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) found there has been overall growth in the proportion of students staying from year 10 until year 12. This growth has largely been driven by students at government schools – up 1.3 percentage points to 74.3% in 2024.
“This is good news. We are starting to see things heading in the right direction for the first time in almost a decade. The Liberals ripped the guts out of school funding, called our teachers duds and did nothing to lift standards,” Federal Education Minister, Jason Clare, said.
“We are starting to turn this around but there is a lot more to do.”
The Australian Catholic University (ACU) – the nation’s largest provider of initial teacher education – has also seen an encouraging uptick in the number of teaching enrollments.
Professor Donna King from the ACU’s National School of Education pointed to “a mixture of continued stability and renewed growth” across the ACU’s Australian campuses.
“This includes a 41 per cent increase in enrolments to study teaching at our Brisbane campus alone,” Professor King told The Educator.
“This is heartening and the national trend identified by Minister Clare is something we, as Australia’s largest provider of initial teacher education, are thrilled to see and are continuing to work hard to ensure will continue as the demand for high-quality teachers is certainly ongoing.”