Independent school enrolment in New South Wales climbed to 20% in 2025, up from 15% in 2008, a peer-reviewed study has found.
The steepest growth occurred in inner regional areas such as Camden, Wagga Wagga and Lismore, not major cities. The findings point to a narrowing socioeconomic gap between independent and Catholic schools, as middle-income families switch from government schools.
The study, published in the Australian Journal of Education by Sally A. Larsen of the University of New England and Emma Rowe of Deakin University, tracked NSW enrolment and socioeconomic data from 2008 to 2025.
Government school attendance fell from 66% to 62% over the period, while Catholic enrolment held near 20%. In remote and very remote areas, around 80% of students remain in government schools, with the rest in Catholic schools, due to a lack of independent options.
Inner regional growth outpaces cities
Independent school attendance in inner regional NSW rose 7 percentage points since 2008, while government attendance there fell 9 points, the study found. Major cities still hold the largest share of independent enrolment, but inner regional areas are closing the gap.
National data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics supports the broader pattern. NSW government school enrolments fell 0.9% in 2025, while non-government enrolments rose 1.9% on the previous year. Independent Schools Australia reported a 31% rise in national independent enrolments between 2014 and 2024, reaching 692,271 students.
Chief executive Graham Catt said the figures reflect that families are choosing Independent schools in growing numbers for reasons including cost and personalised approaches.
Socioeconomic gap narrows outside cities
Across all locations, government schools had the lowest average socioeconomic rating, followed by Catholic schools, with independent schools having the highest, the study found. But independent school socioeconomic composition declined between 2012 and 2025 in major cities, inner regional and outer regional areas, with larger drops outside cities.
The researchers said this suggests students leaving government schools for independent schools are increasingly from middle-income families choosing lower-fee private options, rather than the most advantaged households. The result is that independent schools now educate a student population more similar in background to Catholic schools than in the past.
The researchers noted a limitation: available data could not be split by primary and secondary level, despite evidence that families are more likely to switch sectors at high school. They said the drivers behind the shift away from government schools warrant further research.