Students who receive effective teaching in Year 9 are more likely to plan to complete Year 12. That is the finding of new research from Monash University and UNSW Sydney. Shared on The Conversation, the findings align with separate government data on national school-retention trends.
The study was led by Rebecca J. Collie of Monash University and Andrew J. Martin of UNSW Sydney. Researchers analysed responses from 40,000 government school students in Year 9 and Year 10 across New South Wales. The data came from an annual student survey collected by the NSW Centre for Education Statistics and Evaluation. Researchers examined students' experiences of teaching in Year 9. They then connected those experiences to plans students reported a year later, in Year 10.
The NSW Department of Education's own evaluation arm has since cited the findings in a separate report. That report describes the research as a latent profile analysis of pathway plans across three cohorts of Year 10 students from 2016, 2017, and 2020. The cohorts spanned 9,300 students from regional, rural and remote schools and 31,500 students from metropolitan schools. The department report links the study to broader evidence that teaching support throughout high school is critical for school completion.
Five pathways, one pattern
More than two-thirds of students belonged to groups with strong plans to finish Year 12. Their intentions beyond school, however, varied widely.
Researchers identified these common plans among the group:
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around 50% of students planned to finish school and attend university
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around 10% planned vocational training through TAFE
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around 20% intended to finish school but remained undecided on next steps
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the remaining students were less certain about completing school altogether
Students reporting stronger Year 9 teaching were about 1.5 times more likely to be planning to finish school and attend university. This was compared with students who were not planning to finish school.
Students who planned in Year 10 to complete school were also more likely to actually do so. Roughly eight in 10 students planning on university went on to complete Year 12. That compares with two to three in 10 among the least certain group.
National figures point the same direction
The NSW findings arrive alongside separate national data from the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority. ACARA's National Report on Schooling in Australia was released in May. It found the national apparent retention rate from Year 10 to Year 12 was 81.5% in 2025. That figure marked an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2024.
The report also found 86.7% of 15-to-19-year-olds were fully engaged in education, training or work. That was up marginally from the year before, and echoes separate findings on early intervention and Year 12 completion.
Collie and Martin, in a related analysis published separately, identified three teaching-related factors associated with retention. These were instructional quality, classroom management and student-teacher relationships. Their earlier work found students whose teachers used strong classroom management reported far higher engagement. Those students were up to six times more likely to report high motivation than peers whose teachers did not.
Limitations acknowledged
The researchers noted the NSW study was correlational. This means effective teaching could not be confirmed as the direct cause of stronger completion plans. Other factors, such as family and parental support, were not measured in the study. The findings held after researchers accounted for students' prior academic skills and students' socioeconomic background.
Nationally, Year 12 completion remains uneven across regions. In Australia, only 75%–85% of students complete Year 12, according to the research summary. Rates are consistently lower in rural and regional areas than in cities.