Australia’s Independent school sector is on course to become the country’s second-largest school sector by enrolments as early as 2027. New national research is now asking whether governments are prepared for the students who will follow.
Independent Schools Australia (ISA) published Independent Schooling 2026 – Enrolment Trends, Characteristics and Projections on 28 October 2026. The report projects around 87,700 additional Independent school students by 2035. Based on the current average campus size of 459 students, ISA calculates this as the equivalent of around 191 new schools or campuses.
For principals already managing waitlists and capacity pressures, the projections provide a decade-long planning horizon that many schools have not yet formally mapped.
How fast are Independent school enrolments growing in Australia?
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data confirms the Independent sector is the country’s fastest-growing school sector. Independent school enrolments grew by 3.4% in 2025, against an overall national growth rate of 0.7%. The sector now educates 715,386 full-time equivalent students — 17.2% of the national student population.
The five-year trajectory reinforces the scale of the shift. Between 2021 and 2025, Independent school enrolments rose by 15.3%. Catholic school enrolments grew by 5.7% over the same period. Government school enrolments fell by 0.4%.
ISA chief executive officer Graham Catt said the data confirmed the shift was already well advanced. “Parents are choosing. Policy settings need to catch up,” Mr Catt said.
“The data says that almost 88,000 students’ families will choose an Independent school over the next decade, and governments need to start planning for those children now. A school place doesn’t appear overnight — it needs classrooms, teachers, land and long-term planning.”
Around nine in ten of the additional places projected by ISA are expected to be needed in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.
In NSW, Independent schools already educate 252,268 students — 20% of the state’s total. They remain the fastest-growing sector, boosted in part by growth in regional areas reshaping NSW Independent school enrolment patterns.
Who is actually driving Independent school enrolment growth?
Schools with fees below $8,000 per year account for 44% of enrolments but are driving 65% of Independent school growth across diverse communities and fee brackets.
Outside the capital cities, demand is also shifting. Regional and remote communities contributed roughly 22% of the sector’s five-year growth. That figure runs counter to the common perception of Independent schooling as a predominantly metropolitan trend.
The 2026 report challenges the assumption that Independent school expansion is a high-fee, high-income story. At the top-fee end — schools charging $20,000 or more — enrolments account for 22% of the sector but just 10% of sector growth over the same period.
A planning challenge for all three sectors
For school leaders, the data raises immediate questions about capacity. Despite operating fewer campuses than either the Catholic or government sectors, Independent schools have outpaced both for student growth every year since 2020. That rate of growth, sustained without a proportionate expansion of infrastructure, is narrowing the margin for further absorption.
Mr Catt said planning should be sector-agnostic. “Properly resourcing public schools matters. So does supporting those who choose a non-government school," he said. "Australia needs both, and governments should plan accordingly.”
The 191-school figure is a national planning equivalent. ISA acknowledges future demand could be met through new campuses, expanded enrolments at existing schools, or entirely new facilities. From the data, we can see that demand is real, growing, and already reshaping where Australian children go to school.